Sains Malaysiana 54(11)(2025): 2589-2604

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2025-5411-02

 

Perbezaan Impak Super El Niño terhadap Taburan Hujan di Asia Tenggara

(Differences in the Impact of Super El Niño on Rainfall in Southeast Asia)

 

NOOR AMALINA BOKRI¹, ESTER SALIMUN^1,2,*, ABDUL AZIM AMIRUDIN¹, MUHAMAD ZUHAIRI¹, AFIQAH BAHIRAH AYOUB¹ & NUR LIYANA ISMAIL¹

 

¹Jabatan Sains Bumi dan Alam Sekitar, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

²Pusat Penyelidikan Ekosistem Marin (EKOMAR), Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

 

Received: 28 July 2025/Accepted: 5 November 2025

 

Abstrak

Perbezaan keamatan El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) akan menghasilkan kesan yang berbeza terhadap taburan hujan. Memahami perbezaan dalam mekanisme dan tele-hubungan antara kejadian yang berbeza adalah sangat penting untuk menganggarkan kesannya pada masa hadapan. Asia Tenggara (AT) dipilih sebagai lokasi kajian kerana ia terletak berhampiran dengan khatulistiwa dan sangat terdedah kepada kesan keragaman iklim. Nilai tambah kajian ini adalah meneliti perbezaan impak tele-hubungan terhadap taburan hujan semasa peristiwa super El Niño (1982/83, 1997/98 & 2015/16) di AT, sekali gus memberikan perspektif perbandingan yang sebelum ini kurang diberi perhatian dalam kajian terdahulu. Tiga tahun El Niño telah dipilih untuk kajian ini dan hasil daripada analisis menunjukkan bahawa kekuatan, corak dan jenis El Niño memainkan peranan dalam membentuk taburan hujan musiman di rantau ini melalui mekanisme tele-hubungan yang berbeza. Antara ketiga-tiga super El Niño tersebut, El Niño pada 1997/98 memberikan impak keadaan kering signifikan di AT terutamanya di kawasan selatan (Indonesia dan Filipina) semasa musim SON dengan -2 mm/hari (anomali piawai di bawah min). Keadaan pengeringan yang lebih ekstrem ini berkait rapat dengan kewujudan fasa puncak IOD positif yang kuat secara serentak berbanding dua super El Niño yang lain. Penggunaan data stesen dalam kajian lanjutan disarankan untuk meningkatkan ketepatan penilaian impak terhadap lokaliti di AT semasa fenomena super El Niño.

Kata kunci: Asia Tenggara; super El Niño; taburan hujan; tele-hubungan

 

Abstract

The different intensities of El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) will induce different impacts on the rainfall distribution. Understanding the differences in mechanisms and teleconnections between different events is crucial to estimating future impacts. Southeast Asia (SEA) is chosen as the study location as it lies near the equator, which is prone to face the impacts of climate variabilities. The added value of this research lies in examining the differential impacts of the super El Niño events (1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16) and their teleconnections on rainfall distribution across SEA, thereby addressing a comparative perspective that has been largely overlooked in previous studies. The results indicate that the strength, pattern, and type of El Niño shape the seasonal rainfall distribution in the region through distinct teleconnection mechanisms. Significant rainfall anomalies are detected across SEA especially over the southern part (Indonesia and Philippines) during the SON season for all three super El Niño events. Among them, the 1997/98 event exhibits the strongest negative precipitation anomalies, -2 mm/day (standardised anomaly below the mean). This pronounced drying can be attributed to the concurrent peak of a strong positive IOD phase. The use of station data in future studies is recommended to improve the accuracy of impact assessments on localities in SEA during super El Niño events.

Keywords: Precipitation; Southeast Asia; super El Niño; teleconnection

 

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*Corresponding author; email: ester@ukm.edu.my